Happy Week 11, Hammerheads, as we embark on another weekend of Fantasy Football. First, let’s recap how I did the last week. I suggested you take Brady, Stafford and Roethlisberger. On the value meter for week 10, Stafford ranked number 1, Brady ranked 5th and Roethlisberger 7th. They all exceeded their projected point values, Brady by 1.84 points, Stafford by 4.96 points and Roethlisberger by 1.74 points. So I am giving myself an A- for last week (I grade on a curve).
I hope this week I do as well as I did the last week. I am going to suggest Tom Brady and Alex Smith as GPP’s and Blake Bortles (yes, that Blake Bortles and I did take my medications this morning) for your cash play.
Plays of the Week
First, let’s examine Tom Brady, until further notice, he is going to be on this list. He is the high guy this week and is going to cost you $8600 on FanDuel and has averaged 17.88 points over the last 5 weeks, coming off his best performance in the last five weeks, speaking strictly on fantasy points. The Oakland defense is projected to be DEAD LAST this week and have given up 18.0 points to opposing quarterbacks this year. Given that Brady is projected for 22.4 points, coming off his best week and the state of the Oakland Defense, this one is a no-brainer to me.
That bring us to Alex Smith, he has been a little up and down, but you are getting him at an 8% discount over Brady and he is playing a New York Giants team that is in shambles. Bill Parcells and Bill Belichick are not walking through that door. Smith is projected for 14% fewer points than Brady, or 19.1 this week, but he has averaged 20.09 in his last 5 weeks (11% more than Brady) and his team is coming off the bye against a Giants team giving up 20.8 points to opposing quarterbacks and projected for the 3rd worst defense this week. I like Smith’s chances of exceeding his projected points.
Lastly, I am going to present Blake Bortles. Yes, I know, he is not who you were expecting to see here, but he has a very favorable matchup. He is playing Cleveland, who is giving up 19.0 points to opposing quarterbacks and is the 5th worst projected defense this week. Bortles is only projected for 14.1 points and has averaged only 13.84 in his last 5 weeks, but you are getting him at a relative bargain, $7500 on FanDuel, a 12.7% discount (big bargain on DraftKings at $5200). Given his favorable matchup, the bargain and I think there is high ceiling this week for Bortles, besides if not against the Browns, then who?
I’ll be back next week with more analysis and will grade myself on this week. If I’m not back, it’s because I committed myself for talking about Blake Bortles.
Good luck in your NFL DFS contests this week!
Each week, Johnny G invites the NFL experts from Hammer DFS to share some of their research and insights to help you build your rosters and cross the money line in your DFS contests.
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