The 96th PGA Championship and final major of the year will be played at Valhalla Golf Club in Louisville, Kentucky August 7-10, 2014.
The Jack Nicklaus-designed, PGA of America-owned course previously hosted the PGA Championship in 1996 and 2000. Valhalla was also the site of the 2008 Ryder Cup, the only U.S. victory since 1999.
What difference does 14 years make in the setup of a PGA Championship? The best in the world will be playing a 7,458 yard, par 71 this weekend. Tiger Woods’ playoff victory over Bob May in 2000 was played as 7,167 yards and par 72. I did the math for us: 291 additional yards and one less stroke to navigate it.
So who do we like?
Rory McIlroy has a chance to do something that only Tiger has done over the last 22 years. He could be the only other world’s #1 ranked golfer to win a major while holding the top spot since Fred Couples in 1992.
There’s no way I’m betting against Rory. He’s driving the ball better than anyone on Tour. He’s hitting greens and making putts. He’s at the top of his game and the top of the sport. Not to mention my track record isn’t very good when I don’t pick him as evidenced here and below.
As far as I’m concerned, it’s McIlroy’s tournament to lose. He has overcome his Friday yips, he avoided any kind of hangover after winning a major (everything ok, Martin Kaymer?), and he has won two different ways in consecutive events: wire-to-wire to win the British & the come from behind victory last week.
Late Sunday afternoon of the British Open was when I decided Rickie Fowler would be one of my picks to win the PGA Championship. It’s worth saying again, he is the only player to finish in the top 5 of all three majors (runner up twice) this year. He’s fresh off a top 10 finish last week. He’s been playing his best at the biggest tournaments this year and this is the biggest one left.
When I ignore the fact Rickie has only ever won once on Tour and that Rory is also playing, I really like getting 20-1. His work with Butch Harmon is paying off. Also, this seems like the most likely major he could grab.
The riskier picks were tougher this week because it really feels like the elite golfers are pulling away from the pack (finally) and I feel strongly the winner will come from one of the favorites. Anyone picking Adam Scott, Justin Rose or Sergio Garcia won’t get an argument out of me. I can see each of them winning it. How much higher would Phil Mickelson’s odds (20-1) be had he not shot 62 last Sunday?
My dark horse pick this week is Marc Leishman. The 6’2″ Aussie is coming on strong lately. A tie for 5th in the British Open and a solo 3rd last week has him trending in the right direction. You’re getting 40-1 on Leishman this week who averages 297 off the tee. He’s 14th on Tour in Scoring Average, a stat that has served Sergio well. He ranks 11th overall in total Eagles, which will be important at Valhalla, and 12th on Tour in 3 Putt Avoidance. Score on the par 5’s and avoid the big numbers, big guy.
I’m not venturing further than 66-1 for my flyer pick, Ryan Moore. This feels like a strong value pick because the guy is playing well this year. He was tied for 12th at the British and has three top 10 finishes in his last 4 events, including last week. His stats are solid: 14th in driving accuracy, 9th in Greens in Regulation, 12th in Birdie Average, and 4th in Scrambling inside 30 yards. If the guy has a desire to make the Ryder Cup team (currently 13th), he could make some waves.
Good luck this week and enjoy the tournament.
WGC Bridgestone Invitational Wrap Up
Hello new World’s #1 ranked golfer, Rory McIlroy. Rory immediately erased a 3 shot deficit with the help of 3 straight birdies to start his Sunday round, then held on to win.
I was right that McIlroy would play well, wrong that he wouldn’t win it. Remember when Fridays were his enemy? Well, he’s over it. Friday was his best round, shooting 64. I’m 0 for 2 betting against him this year. I need to learn from this.
Keegan Bradley finished in a tie for 4th place. It seems like every time he was on camera, he was lipping out a birdie putt. His approach from 227 yards away on #2 Saturday was my favorite shot of the tournament. Bradley knocked it stiff to a foot for a kick-in eagle.
My other 2 picks both finished T8, Rickie Fowler and Adam Scott. With the leaders faltering a bit on Sunday, Scott ran into a string of bogeys at the wrong time to take him out of contention.
Rickie’s double bogey on #18 Saturday finished off a 72, his only over-par round. It left him 10 shots off the lead going into the final day, but he still shot a solid 67 Sunday.
All 3 picks were top 10 finishes.
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