Week 1 of the 2018 NFL season is in the books. We’re still getting a feel for the season at this point. We take what we thought we knew going into the first slate and now we compare it to what was confirmed and what was off the mark.
The chalk came through in the first weekend of the new season. It will take another week or two before we have usable data specific to this year, so my not-so-bold prediction is the chalk will only get chalkier this week.
Johnny G invites the NFL experts from Hammer DFS to share some of their research and insights to help you build your rosters and cross the money line in your DFS contests.
Cash Plays
One thing I can’t figure out is how 33% of people in my cash games last week decided AGAINST Alvin Kamara. Sure, everyone thought it would be a Saints blowout win and he wouldn’t be needed late so Payton would rest him, but you still had to get the big lead in that narrative. With no Ingram, even considering him playing less than 4 quarters, it was an easy assumption that his usage would tick up overall. He was extremely playable last season in a split backfield.
Maybe you fade him in GPP, thinking you can find a higher ceiling and/or lower ownership elsewhere, but in cash my only worry was being overexposed to an injury. Needless to say, Kamara is back at the top of my list this week. He’ll face the Browns who are fresh off of letting some other chalk, James Conner, exceed projections. The fade narrative will be the same, but it’s a matter of simply not over thinking it again in Week 2.
Receptions by running backs were up overall in Week 1 vs last season averages, which benefits DraftKings rosters more considering the full point per reception. It can be brutal watching him try to run between the tackles, but Christian McCaffrey earns his money on those short passes. Cam Newton targeted CMcC nine times last Sunday.
This is the cash section of the article, so does anyone have any guesses as to which team led the league in receptions allowed to running backs last season? That’s right, the Panthers’ opponent this week, the Atlanta Falcons.
GPP Plays
There were two camps when it came to the topic of Derrick Henry in the offseason. The popular opinion seemed to be that Henry shot up the draft boards as the clear #1 back in Tennessee with no DeMarco Murray. Then there was the smaller camp who wondered just how much Dion Lewis would drive season-long Henry owners absolutely bonkers. Early results show the minority opinion off to a healthy lead.
Lewis was on the field for 49 of 69 offensive snaps last week, while Henry seemingly disappeared in the 4th quarter. Dion was targeted eight times out of the backfield, hauling in five receptions for 35 yards. Amazingly, he also rushed 16 times for 75 yards and a TD compared to Henry’s 10 carries.
The Titans host the Texans on Sunday. We have to assume Deshaun Watson will shake some rust off. He was a shell of the 2017 Watson we saw, but the offense still had plenty of opportunities against the Patriots. If the Texans show up with a more effective offense, the Titans may be forced to punch the accelerator themselves and in my opinion that feeds into Dion Lewis usage.
Good luck in your NFL DFS contests this week!
This is just a taste of the information that the experts over at Hammer DFS are grinding over day in, day out. From an opportunity perspective, the NFL is a sport with only a few chances to jump on the right plays and make money for the week. If you need extra help or you just can’t put up the points you want to, check in with the guys at Hammer and see for yourself the difference a DFS Consultant can make.
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