Week 3 of the NFL regular season is in the books and I don’t know about you, but I was not a fan of Latavius Murray Chalk Week. Hopefully, we don’t have another one of those in the near future. Dalvin Cook returned to practice and the Vikings aren’t on the main slate, so it’s a non-factor in the bulk of the contests we’ll be playing.
We enter the final week of the Mark Ingram suspension and Alvin Kamara’s salary has predictably jumped again on DraftKings and FanDuel (he’s over 9k on both sites now). I won’t be writing him up this week and can’t justify his price in my cash lineups with all the value out there, but I will want a piece of Kamara in GPPs.
Johnny G invites the NFL experts from Hammer DFS to share some of their research and insights to help you build your rosters and cross the money line in your DFS contests.
Cash Plays
The first stop in the Cash play section, as usual, is Chalk City. Ezekiel Elliott should carry significant ownership, but it’s for good reason and I’m playing him as good chalk this week. He’s playing at home against a Detroit Lions’ defense that is giving up a lot of points to the position, to the tune of +3.4 fantasy points. He’s only the 5th highest priced back on DraftKings ($7700) and the 4th highest on FanDuel ($8200), but one of the few remaining feature backs left in the league with a near-guaranteed workload. Surprisingly, he’s also hauled in 11 receptions on 18 targets this season. The receiving yardage is minimal, but the PPR boost keeps his floor nice and high.
As of the publish date of this article, Devonta Freeman hasn’t returned to practice and is not expected to play this week. Couple that information with the fact that Tevin Coleman saw a price decrease on both sites (down $400 to $5900 on DK) and you almost have a feature back by default at a discount. You may hear rumblings of Ito Smith eating into Coleman’s workload. Smith only saw 10 snaps last week and has his own questionable injury tag, so I’m not too worried about him. Coleman was on the field for 53 of the Falcons’ 68 plays last week. He also had four red zone touches (two rushes, two receptions on two targets). He’s set up for what could be a heavy workload in the second highest implied game total on the board. I’m probably sticking with Coleman on DK only, because;
On FanDuel, you might want to look to the other sideline at Giovani Bernard. Where Tevin is $400 cheaper on DK ($5900 vs $6300), Gio will save you $800 ($6400 vs $7200) over on FD. It’s a similar story too; a backup, change of pace back that is thrust into the starting position due to injury. Bernard saw 57 of 65 snaps last week with no Joe Mixon. He turned that into 17.1 FD points; averaging 5.1 yards per carry, seeing nine targets, catching five of them, and had three carries in the red zone converting one of them into a rushing TD. He’ll face a banged up Falcons defense that is near the very bottom of the league in points allowed to the position.
GPP Plays
While Melvin Gordon will likely garner much more ownership, you might want to turn to some Austin Ekeler exposure in your GPPs. He’s not going to get a high volume, but Ekeler is averaging 9.5 yards per touch. The game script after San Francisco lost Jimmy G skews run heavy, which should filter a higher percentage of plays to the ground game and in turn opportunities to the Chargers secondary back. Averaging over 15 DK points per game, he’s a great bargain at $4200.
Good luck in your NFL DFS contests this week!
This is just a taste of the information that the experts over at Hammer DFS are grinding over day in, day out. From an opportunity perspective, the NFL is a sport with only a few chances to jump on the right plays and make money for the week. If you need extra help or you just can’t put up the points you want to, check in with the guys at Hammer and see for yourself the difference a DFS Consultant can make.
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