Week 3 of the 2017 NFL season is here and the data and trends are starting to emerge. The research starts to lean more on current season stats as opposed to last season and preseason games.
Johnny G invites the NFL experts from Hammer DFS to share some of their research and insights to help you build your rosters and cross the money line in your DFS contests.
Cash Game Targets
Derek Carr has to be considered in cash games. The Sunday Night Football match up between the Raiders & Redskins has the highest total of the week at 54 points. It opened at 53 and moved up. Carr has 5 TDs in his first two games. He’s also completing 75% of his passes (45 for 60). If Washington keeps this a game, Carr could easily eclipse his average of 30 pass attempts per game, which equates to the fantasy points we’re looking for. He’s the 5th most expensive QB on both DraftKings & FanDuel, so you’re getting a discount from the elite tier.
Aaron Rodgers will have a big day on Sunday. The Bengals’ rank of 12th against the pass is deceiving. They’ve faced a grand total of 41 passes in their two games (likely because they were behind). Rodgers has 42+ attempts in each game. He’s thrown for over 300 yards in both of them, completing over 66%. Rodgers plays well at home and Green Bay doesn’t abandon the pass completely when they’re up big, so you’ll still be racking up points late.
Tournament (GPP) Plays
Matthew Stafford is more of a GPP play after only collecting 122 yards last week. The game script will be completely different though as the Falcons come to town. He has 6 TDs on the season and will likely be trailing all game. He’s completed over 70% of his passes in both contests and he’s sure to have a load of attempts Sunday. I wouldn’t be surprised if I see him in lines that take down a lot of money.
Phillip Rivers saw a bump to his salary this week, as he sits at $6400/$7500 on DraftKings and FanDuel respectively. However, as soon as he hits 20 DK points, we’ve already exceeded 3x value. He’s averaging 19.46 DK points so far and he gets a home game vs. a Chiefs secondary with some holes. The Chiefs will be very popular and are getting 80% of the public bets, Vegas isn’t moving the line. This indicates that Vegas believes it will be a close game. That means important possessions throughout the game for PR and all his weapons.
Also worth noting is the Saints defense with 0 takeaways and just 3 sacks. Looks like “whoever plays the Saints” will be a thing all season again this year. They gave up 346 passing yards to Bradford and 447 yards to Brady. Newton apparently went partially blind in the offseason and looks like my four-year old girl playing fetch with the dog out there, but he’s in a great spot.
With the weak Jets secondary, is Cutler & Co. actually a play this week? This game has also seen reverse line movement, meaning Vegas thinks the Jets put up a fight in their home opener. Our Buddy Cutty may have to air it out Sunday.
Good luck in your NFL DFS contests this week!
This is just a taste of the information that the experts over at Hammer DFS are grinding over day in, day out. From an opportunity perspective, the NFL is a sport with only a few chances to jump on the right plays and make money for the week. If you need extra help or you just can’t put up the points you want to, check in with the guys at Hammer and see for yourself the difference a DFS Consultant can make.